The stock of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NAS:BCRX, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $13.12 per share and the market cap of $2.3 billion, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is shown in the chart below.
Because BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.08, which is worse than 83% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. The overall financial strength of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is 2 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is poor. This is the debt and cash of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has been profitable 0 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $17.8 million and loss of $1.08 a share. Its operating margin is -981.12%, which ranks worse than 73% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. Overall, the profitability of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is ranked 1 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus’ research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company’s stock. If a company’s business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company’s revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’s 3-year average revenue growth rate is worse than 73% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’s 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -14.4%, which ranks worse than 76% of the companies in Biotechnology industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’s return on invested capital is -295.87, and its cost of capital is 17.87. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is shown below:
Overall, the stock of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NAS:BCRX, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is poor and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks worse than 76% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. To learn more about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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